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Analysts See 2016 Oil Price Rise, While Traders Bet on Fall

SINGAPORE, Dec 31 (Reuters) – A year ago, after oil prices had halved in six months, analysts were forecasting a price recovery in 2015 while many traders were busy shorting the market.

As it turned out, the traders were correct and oil prices fell by another third this year. Analysts have now forecast a pick-up in prices over 2016, while traders built short positions on U.S. oil futures to a record in early December.

The difference in the two views is on what happens in response to an oil output surplus that has been estimated as high as 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by some analysts.

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