Summary Key world oil number. Decline not “off a cliff.” Weekly estimates flawed. Projections influenced. Oil shale’s influence on U.S. production sparked a world oil price war. It affects the value of energy sector investments worldwide. It is of keen interest by U.S. and world oil market participants. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported the …
Summary The current supply chain of oil is very fragile with 16.4% of current global production at risk of disruption due to turmoil in major oil producing countries. What are the risks these countries are facing today, and why oil production risks are much higher today than any time in the past several years? How …
Summary $30 dollar oil is pushing a lot of producers under. This environment will, in the long run, create an environment in which demand will outstrip supply. Only a reduction in demand through a recession will stop this supply-demand imbalance from occurring. By Nick Cunningham The biggest result from the collapse in oil prices could …
Summary I computed Altman’s Z2-Score for XOM, CVX, CHK, DNR, CLR, DVN, EOG, NBL, OAS, OXY, PXD, RRC, NOG, SWN, SN, WLL, FANG, MRD, APA, and APC. Altman’s Z2-Score indicated half of the companies I profiled have a high probability of going bankrupt. I believe many investors have suffered from cognitive dissonance as it relates …
Summary Two key events could impact oil prices in a big way on Wednesday. Petroleum inventory data will be reported by the EIA at 10:30 AM ET and it is a powerful factor for oil prices. The Federal Reserve will publish its latest Monetary Policy Statement at 2:00 PM ET, and it could swing both …
Summary Since its introduction a month ago, Bottom of the Barrel Club members have seen significant equity and debt price declines. Already, two members declared bankruptcy, so additional companies are added and the list is expanded. Comparative equity price performance, as well as selected debt, enterprise and EBITDA figures are presented and analyzed. Comparative bond …
Crude oil fell for a fifth straight day en route to another 10% tumble on the week, despite data that showed a decline in active U.S. drilling rigs; traders are dismissing signs of slowing work because the reduction has not translated to lower production, WSJ reports. The world’s glut is likely to worsen in coming months …
“Shocking” data from Oklahoma may be moving the oil market this week as much as the shouting between Saudi Arabia and Iran, WSJ‘s Nicole Friedman reports. First, data released Thursday showed that while U.S. oil production is falling, overall output is higher than previously reported; new reporting methodology prompted the EIA to revise its production data higher for …
Summary In 2008, both Goldman Sachs and John Kilduff saw $200 oil as a distinct possibility. For 2016, these same luminaries see $20 (or even $18). There has to be a better way to analyze the price of oil: certainly projecting extremes based on momentum is not working, except as an attention getting ploy. The …
Summary Market close to December 2008 lows. Term structure. Refining spreads. Quality/location spreads. Divergence with XLE. It has been a rough year for the energy markets in 2015. Crude oil opened in January of this year at over $50 per barrel on the active month NYMEX crude oil futures contract. There was some wild volatility …